Trump’s Canadian Delusion: A Provocative Idea That Crosses the Line - Just Opinion (En)

Background

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that Canada should become the 51st state of the United States, proposing the elimination of the 5,525-mile border between the two countries. These claims are regarded as preposterous by Canadians, and significant barriers exist to their realization .

However, President Trump's idea includes a vision where the traditional lower 48 U.S. states become a contiguous 50 states with the removal of Canadian territory between the U.S. mainland and Alaska, making Hawaii the sole non-contiguous state . President Trump has also stated, "If people play the game the right way, it's 100% certain they will become a state".

Canada's Reaction

• Canada initially dismissed President Trump's remarks as a joke, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau affirming that Canada would never become the 51st state. However, Prime Minister Trudeau recently mentioned in a private setting that President Trump's persistent merger claims might not be mere talk and appear to be a "real thing".

U.S. Statehood Admission Process

So, according to what Donald Trump says, what process would be followed if, hypothetically, Canada were to be incorporated into the United States?

First, the admission of a new state to the Union requires the approval of the U.S. Congress.

In the House of Representatives, a simple majority vote is sufficient, but in the Senate, due to the filibuster rule, at least 60 votes are needed to bring a bill to a vote, which is a challenging threshold even for many major pieces of legislation.

Furthermore, a new statehood bill passed by Congress must be signed by the President to take effect. In the case of Canada, President Trump has clearly indicated he would be eager to do so. The New States Clause of the U.S. Constitution (Article IV, Section 3) stipulates that Congress may admit new states into the Union, but it also specifies that forming a new state within the jurisdiction of an existing state or creating a new state by combining two or more states or parts of states requires the consent of the legislatures of the states concerned as well as the Congress.

Canada's Position

It cannot be overstated that over 90% of Canadians oppose becoming a U.S. state, and the majority of Canadian leaders have no interest in becoming a U.S. state.

Before any further detailed process for Canada to become a U.S. state could begin, Canada would likely need to gauge voter interest through a referendum, which is almost certainly unfeasible. According to last year's polls by Gallup and the Pew Research Center, Americans hold overwhelmingly positive views of Canada, but Canadian views of the U.S. have sharply deteriorated since the 2025 trade war.

Rather, Canada might end up seizing control of the United States.

The YouTube video "Why Trump's Goal Of Annexing Canada Would Actually Lead To The Canadian Takeover Of The U.S." warns that President Trump's goal of annexing Canada could lead to unforeseen consequences, potentially resulting in Canada politically dominating the United States.

Conditions for Canada's Statehood and Increase in Senate Seats

The video points out that if Canada were to be annexed by the United States:

• Canada would not tolerate its 10 provinces and 3 official territories becoming a single state.
• Instead, it is more likely to demand that each province and territory become an individual U.S. state as a condition.
• Since each state has 2 senators under the U.S. Constitution, this would mean an addition of 26 new senators from Canada, potentially forming a swing bloc capable of controlling the U.S. Senate.

Swing states are states in U.S. elections that do not consistently support a particular party and where the election outcome is fluid. These states are considered "battleground" states because they can be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a presidential election, thus "swinging" the election results.

The material mentions that if Canada becomes a U.S. state, the importance of traditional swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could decrease. This is because the addition of tens of millions of Canadian voters with potentially different voting tendencies could relatively diminish the significance of these states.

• Furthermore, during negotiations, Canada might demand that each political entity be geographically divided into two new states (e.g., North Dakota, South Dakota). This is similar to the 1889 division of the Dakota Territory into North Dakota and South Dakota, and historical examples such as Maine's separation from Massachusetts in 1820 and West Virginia's separation from Virginia in 1863 are also cited.
• If this scenario materializes, up to 26 new states could be created from Canada, adding 52 new senators and potentially giving Canada complete control of the U.S. Senate.

Expansion of House Seats and Political Influence

• Canada would also secure a strong number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based on its population size. Canada's population of 41.6 million exceeds California's 39.4 million, making it the most populous state and potentially giving it 55 House seats based on the 2020 census. This would significantly increase its influence in the House, potentially leading to a "political reversal" where "Canada takes the lead in American politics".

• Since the number of House seats is limited to 435 under the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929, other states would have to lose seats to accommodate Canada's representation.

Impact on U.S. Elections

If Canada were incorporated into the United States, it would have a profound impact on U.S. elections. Canada would have 57 Electoral College votes, making it the region with the greatest influence in presidential elections, surpassing California's 54. The importance of swing states could decrease.

President Donald Trump's attempt to make Canada a single U.S. state appears to be strongly driven by political intentions. If Canada were allocated only two senators, the rights of its diverse regions and territories might not be adequately protected. This could ultimately deepen internal conflicts within Canada and lead to the negative consequence of resource exploitation by the United States.

 

Economic Impact

Initially, the movement of goods between the United States and Canada would increase further. In 2022, goods worth $990 billion were traded between the two countries. Streamlined border crossing procedures would further boost trade. However,

• While Canada might experience economic growth by gaining access to a larger market, many small and medium-sized enterprises could struggle due to increased competition with large U.S. corporations, potentially leading to increased unemployment and a decline in entrepreneurship.
• If Canada adopts the U.S. dollar, it could benefit Canadian import markets but weaken export competitiveness, and Canada could become more vulnerable to global economic shocks.
• Canada's interest rates and monetary policy would be determined by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) rather than the Bank of Canada.
• Canada holds the world's largest freshwater reserves (20% of the global supply), which could stabilize U.S. water dependency, and also possesses significant oil reserves (over 10% of global reserves). This would significantly increase U.S. oil reserves, making it the world's third-largest oil power.
• The average U.S. after-tax income in 2022 was approximately $74,500, while in Canada it was about $49,000 (in U.S. dollars). However, the actual standard of living might not differ significantly due to lower costs for social services such as healthcare and childcare in Canada.
• The transition to the U.S.'s privatized healthcare system could increase the financial burden on Canadians and completely dismantle the existing healthcare system. Canada's poverty rate is 9.9%, lower than the U.S.'s 11.1%, and income inequality is also lower in Canada, but this balance could be disrupted upon integration.

Cultural and Political Impact

Canada's inclusion could completely shake up the U.S. political system and balance. The average Canadian political inclination tends to be more left-leaning and liberal than that of Americans, which could favor the Democratic Party in Congress. This could narrow the Republican Party's congressional advantage and benefit Democrats in presidential elections.

• Canada has five different political parties at the federal level, and their entry into the U.S. political system could transform the U.S.'s two-party system into a multi-party one. Considering Canadians' potential resistance to U.S. rule, many Canadians might vote for their own parties within the U.S. government.
• Quebec, with its distinct identity and large French-speaking population, might resist U.S. incorporation, and its separatist movement could be reignited. Quebec has not ratified the Canadian Constitution, and provinces have the authority to deviate from federal constitutional provisions, which could clash with the U.S.'s centralized political culture.

Given the high support for separatist parties in Quebec, U.S. incorporation could trigger the resurgence of violent separatist groups.

• As Canada officially uses two languages (English and French), it might demand that the U.S. also become a bilingual country upon annexation, which could be contentious.
• Each Canadian province has greater autonomy than U.S. states, wielding more influence over various policy decisions such as healthcare, policing, and education. This could lead to friction during the integration process into the U.S. federal system.
• Historically, Canada sided with Britain during the American Revolutionary War, which could evoke negative sentiments towards Canadian annexation within the United States.

Last State Admission

The last time the U.S. admitted a state was Hawaii in 1959, with Alaska becoming the 49th state in January of the same year. Hawaii is approximately 3,900 km from the mainland and was annexed as a U.S. territory by Congress in 1898, but its statehood was delayed for decades due to racial discrimination and partisan disagreements . Alaska is about 800 km away from the U.S. mainland due to Canadian territory. The statehood of Alaska and Hawaii was influenced by the political calculations of the Republican and Democratic parties at the time.

Conclusion

Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state is a highly complex and unlikely scenario from a political, economic, and cultural perspective. Due to the opposition of Canadian citizens and leaders, the difficulties of the U.S. statehood admission process, and the significant differences between the two countries, its realization in the short term is improbable. In particular, the argument presented in the "Why Trump's Goal Of Annexing Canada ..." video, suggesting that Canadian annexation could paradoxically lead to Canada's political takeover of the U.S., highlights the complexity and potential risks of this scenario. President Trump's continued remarks are sparking discussions about the relationship between the two countries, but if it were to materialize, it would have extensive and unpredictable impacts on both the U.S. and Canada. Given the severely strained relationship between the two countries due to the recent trade war, Trump's dangerous desire to make Canada the 51st state seems to be a political and military provocation that goes beyond realistic feasibility.

U.S. President Donald Trump, threatening Canada's sovereignty... A U.S. President who only needs Canada's resources... What do you think?

Data Source

• Could the U.S. actually make Canada a 51st state? How the process works - National | Globalnews.ca
• Trump’s remarks on Canada becoming the 51st state raise a lot of questions | AP News
• What If Canada Became the 51st State 
• Why Trump's Goal Of Annexing Canada Would Actually Lead To The Canadian Takeover Of The U.S.